Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades. Downside risks to the outlook remain elevated, while policy trade-offs to address the cost-of-living crisis have become more challenging.
The forecast for 2023 is a slow economic growth in the US to 1%; China’s growth forecast is at 4.4%. And the slowdown is most pronounced in the Euro Area, to 0.5% in 2023.
Global economic growth is forecast to slow from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023 (0.2pp lower than the July forecast). This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7% in 2021 to 8.8% in 2022 but to decline to 6.5% in 2023 and to 4.1% by 2024.
- IMF Financial Stability Report October 2022
- IMF fiscal monitor October 2022
- Policymakers Need Steady Hand as Storm Clouds Gather Over Global Economy, Blog of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (IMF Economic Counsellor and Director of Research).